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Prognos Study: Coal rundown 2018 will affect the regional job market and economy

In spite of the decline in production the German coal industry is still very important for the Ruhr area and the regional labour market. In North Rhine-Westphalia alone coal mining secures nearly 54,000 jobs through its direct, indirect and induced employment impact.

Walzenschrämläder zum Abbau von Kohle.

Such were the findings of the study ‘Regional and economic impact of coal mining in North Rhine-Westphalia’, which was carried out by well-known consultants Prognos AG. The company was commissioned by the GVSt (German Hard Coal Association) to assess the regional and economic significance of the coal industry in the Ruhr area and to analyse on an empirical and scientific basis the regional, fiscal and wider socio-economic consequences of various future ‘coal policy’ scenarios, including the now-agreed closure of the industry in 2018. The study did not take account of energy-policy aspects or the possible 2012 review. It finds that each coal-industry job secures a further 1.3 job opportunities in the wider business environment, while in the Ruhr coalfield this figure rises to about 2.3 additional jobs. If current employment trends continue the 2018 closure scenario will therefore lead to more than 40,000 job losses in the NRW region unless structural change can be massively accelerated to create new employment opportunities. German-based mining supplier companies will be hardest hit, while further regional and social problems will also arise. At the same time there will be considerable financial consequences for the Treasury (additional expenditure on unemployment, reduced income by way of taxes and social dues) and it is estimated that by 2018 these will cost as much as € 3.5 bn more than the proposed savings on aid to the coal industry. This cannot, on balance, be ‘reallocated’ for alternative purposes. The Prognos Study applies exclusively to the Ruhr coal industry and data for the Saar and Ibbenbüren coalfields are not taken into account. This means that the study follows on directly from the 1999 report ‘Interdependence between coal mining and economic structure in the Ruhr coalfield’ that Prognos produced in 1999 on commission for the Coalfields Action Group (ZAK). The new investigation takes 2006 as the reference year. The Study was completed in the autumn of 2007. Editors from Prognos have also produced a summary of the Study’s findings, which appears in edition 1/2-2008 (pp. 50-53) of the journal Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (‘Regional and economic importance of the Ruhr mining industry – results of model calculations’). The full text of the Study is published on the GVSt website (www.gvst.de).

Source:

GVSt – German Hard Coal Association

www.gvst.de